Premier League

How the nine-team Premier League relegation scrap ends with everyone on 38 points

Roy Hodgson Crystal Palace F365

Crystal Palace’s defeat at Brighton confirms what we already expected: this is a great big daft nine-team relegation fight and that is tremendous news for everyone apart from the supporters of said nine teams.

But how will that relegation scrap play out? Other, lesser football outlets might consult a feeble supercomputer or simulate all the games on FIFA in their mum’s basement, but not us. We’ve done it properly: decided on the outcome we want, and worked everything out backwards from there. We’ll tell you precisely how it’s going to play out. They’re all going to end up level on 38 points. Every one of them. Thirty-eight points.

Obviously this means relegation – and indeed every finishing position from 12th down – will be settled by goal difference. We’ve not worked that bit out because we’re not complete lunatics and also we don’t actually care which three teams go down as long as they and the six teams directly above them all finish with 38 points. Here’s how it all goes down.


Crystal Palace

Now: P27 W6 D9 L12 Pts 27

Predictable defeat to his former club Arsenal sees patience in Patrick Vieira finally run out. He’s replaced by Roy Hodgson, obviously, who picks up a solid enough point against Leicester in one of the many, many six-pointers to come. Defeats to Leeds and Southampton drag Palace right into the sh*t and see Hodgson get all feisty in his post-match press conferences but a much-needed win over Everton finally ends Palace’s absurd wait for 2023 success. Then they lose to Wolves – 1-0 probably – but turn over Patrick Vieira’s West Ham (Oh yeah, Moyes gets sacked as well at some point and they appoint Vieira) in a grudge match. Defeats to Tottenham and Fulham sandwich a point against Bournemouth before final-day victory over Forest takes Palace to the magical 38-point mark and possibly safety. Don’t know, don’t care.

Final total: P38 W9 D11 L18 Pts 38



Now: P27 W7 D6 L14 Pts 27

A couple of draws in six-pointers against Leeds and Forest keep Wolves ticking along above the trapdoor before they beat Chelsea because everybody does these days. Brentford are held before another six-pointer against Leicester ends all square. Victory over Palace – 1-0 probably – is much needed ahead of a tough run of closing games starts with defeat to top-four contenders Brighton. A midlands derby draw takes them to 38 points with three games to go and surely safety? Not necessarily; two of those games are…

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