Spain and Germany underestimate their other group opponents at their peril

Spain and Germany have to play each other in the group stage and the losers will have much to think about in their other two games.

Both Spain and Germany will have had good reason to pay attention to Argentina’s surprise 2-1 defeat to Saudi Arabia. These two nations have been drawn against each other in the same World Cup group, and the assumption that they will both qualify by default is based on them both turning over the other two teams in the group – Japan and Costa Rica – and that looks considerably shakier today than it did yesterday. Their match against each other ensures that one or both of them will drop points; further dropped points start to look like they could be a gamble too far.

There was a period during which Spain and Germany dominated European international football. Spain won the World Cup in 2010 and the  European Championships in 2008 and 2012. Germany added a second World Cup to that list in 2014. But in 2018 Germany were knocked out in the group stage while Spain were eliminated in the second round.

Both teams could do with a return to success, but Germany probably need it more. Their last two tournaments saw them eliminated at the first hurdle for the first time in 80 years in 2018 and then knocked out in the second round of the last Euros. With the passing of time, their 2014 World Cup win has come to look like an outlier rather than a reversion to any kind of norm.

In 2018, Spain squeaked through the group stages by the skin of their teeth, winning one and drawing their other two group matches. Curiously they were again put in the same group as another big side; in this case, it was the then-reigning European champions Portugal. Having qualified top of their group on goals scored from Portugal, they were beaten on penalties in the second round by Russia. They fared better at Euro 2020, where they came within a penalty shoot-out of a place in the final.

Perhaps Germany’s biggest issue going into this tournament is where the goals are going to come from. Kai Havertz is expected to lead the line, but that’s not really his natural position and it really does feel as though this team needs a No. 9. They certainly have talent in other positions. Jamal Musiala – who played for England up to under-21 level – has been a revelation for Bayern Munich and at 19 years old already seems some way beyond being a mere ‘prospect’, while his Bayern team-mates Leon Goretzka and Josh Kimmich are similarly stylish players.