The absurd fight to avoid relegation from the Premier League has at last attained an air of, if not serenity, then at least sanity.
The nine-team scrap that was brewing (and really thanks to Sir Frank of Lampard it was actually a 10-team scrap; Chelsea’s run of seven points from nine against Leeds, Leicester and Everton back in March were all vital six-pointers in hindsight) has now been whittled down to five with Palace and Wolves having achieved escape velocity and Bournemouth and West Ham now in mathematical peril only.
That leaves us with Everton, Leicester, Leeds, Nottingham Forest and poor old Southampton left trying to dodge the bottom three places when the music stops. They’ve all played the same number of games which helps keep things neat as well. So here are the reasons why each of them can do it, and the reasons why each of them may not.
Nottingham Forest
Currently: 16th, P35 Pts 33 GD -31
Why they’ll stay up: Current owners of the box seats after crowning a gloriously daft day of Vintage Our League Bank Holiday Barclays with a frantic 4-3 win over Southampton. A three-point cushion over teams who are, by definition, quite shit is not to be sniffed at with just three games to go. Forest might even survive without securing another point. Having wisely stuck with Steve Cooper, Forest now have the unexpected advantage – having spent the summer necessarily and the winter unnecessarily stockpiling new players – of being the team with consistency of personnel for the final push. In Morgan Gibbs-White they possess a potent talisman who is demonstrably dragging his team-mates along with him; arguably only Leicester among the stragglers boast similar.
Why they’ll go down: They might stay up without further points but probably won’t. And that’s a bit of a problem because their remaining fixtures aren’t great. Forest will need to hope Chelsea and Palace are on the beach with the flip-flops out for their two remaining away games, while things will be even harder for their solitary remaining City Ground date: Arsenal are definitely not on the beach. Having comfortably the worst goal difference of the four teams with realistic survival hopes is also sub-optimal, especially with any one of their remaining games having the potential for heavy defeat.
Everton
Currently: 17th, P35 Pts 32 GD -21
Why they’ll stay up: Must, by definition, now be the most confident of the quintet after that entirely ludicrous 5-1 victory at a Brighton…
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