We’ve had a good laugh at the players who are being most conspicuously owned by their xG stats, so it’s only right and fair that we acknowledge those at the other end of the scale who are making a mockery of the boffins’ projections.
The mirror-image feature is here, while this one sadly produces the most predictable duo imaginable in first and second and forcing us into an anti-clickbait headline dammit.
10. Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg (Tottenham) – +2.7
Expected goals: 1.3
Actual goals: 4
Sneaks in to the top 10 just ahead of his midfield partner Rodrigo Bentancur (four goals from an xG of 1.4) and the fact both are having unusually bountiful seasons in front of goal has certainly been a key factor in Spurs being far higher up the table than performances would have suggested.
9. Pascal Gross (Brighton) – +2.8
Expected goals: 3.2
Actual goals: 6
Set the tone for Brighton’s season with both goals in the opening day 2-1 win over Manchester United. Sadly for many, it turns out this did not also set the tone for Manchester United’s season. They’re quite good now. Almost entirely non-embarrassing.
8. Roberto Firmino (Liverpool) – +2.8
Expected goals: 4.2
Actual goals: 7
Scored a couple in the 9-0 Bournemouth rout, which would not be classed as the most important of goals. Also scored the equaliser in what remains Newcastle’s only defeat of the season, which definitely was the most important of goals. The brace in a very silly 3-3 draw against Brighton also handy.
7. Gabriel Martinelli (Arsenal) – +3.1
Expected goals: 3.9
Actual goals: 7
The first of the plus-three gang and perhaps surprisingly the only Arsenal man in the top 10. Given they are the second top-scorers in the league, that suggests they really do create some very good chances.
6. Phil Foden (Manchester City) – +3.3
Expected goals: 3.7
Actual goals: 7
And 1.9 of that very impressive overall figure is accounted for by Foden’s hat-trick in the Manchester derby. Hasn’t added to his goal tally since the World Cup having been used sparingly by Pep Guardiola.
5. Miguel Almiron (Newcastle) – +3.9
Expected goals: 5.1
Actual goals: 9
Even matching that xG would make this an eye-catchingly impressive goalscoring season for Almiron. Not least because scoring 0.1 of a goal would be quite a trick. But Almiron, one of the real stories of the season, has obliterated even that high mark having matched his goals tally from his first 110 Premier League games in the first 18 games…
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