Welcome back to the Guardian’s MLS Power Rankings, where I have a beef with your specific team and your specific team alone.
MLS roster rules might be changing in the middle of the season, but as for this column? It’s following the same format as it has all season. We’re still ranking teams from worst to first. But along with the rankings, we’re diving deep into a handful of teams from around the league who are doing particularly interesting things.
My kingdom for a goalkeeper
27. FC Dallas
26. Austin FC
25. Chicago Fire
24. Nashville SC
If there’s one team in MLS hoping that their underlying numbers are well and truly predictive, it’s the San Jose Earthquakes.
Through the first almost two months of the season, no team has underperformed their expected goal differential (xGD) by a larger margin than the Quakes. Currently sitting at the bottom of the Western Conference and at the bottom of the Supporters’ Shield standings with just three points through eight games, their xGD is sitting at a respectable +1.01, according to American Soccer Analysis. But, their real-world goal differential is much worse, sitting at -10. That staggering 11-goal gap is four goals wider than the next closest team in that same statistical category.
Teams have been hot against San Jose this year. Sebastián Driussi’s 101st-minute winner from distance for Austin FC a couple of weekends ago is just one example:
Conventional wisdom says bangers like the one up above won’t keep finding the back of the Earthquakes’ net. But is it as simple as waiting for the seas to change for Luchi Gonzalez and Co to start picking up points? Well, not quite.
One thing that’s not included in xGD is a team’s goalkeeping performance – and so far this year, no team’s goalkeepers have performed worse than San Jose’s. They’re turning fine chances into golden ones for the Quakes’ opponents. While they’re unlikely to continue shipping two-and-a-half goals every game for an entire season, it’s hard to imagine things getting a whole lot better in San Jose until their goalkeeping situation improves.
Questions in Kansas City
23. Toronto FC
22. New York City FC
21. Orlando City
20. Colorado Rapids
18. Seattle Sounders
Peter Vermes and a 4-3-3 shape go together like peanut butter and jelly.
The 4-3-3 has…