The 2022-23 Premier League season is about to restart, and the table seems to have taken shape – but can any clubs feel lucky or hard done by?
Manchester City and Arsenal have started to pull away from the rest of the chasing pack, but have their results reflected the quality of their performances?
Meanwhile, sides like Manchester United, Chelsea and Liverpool have had their struggles this season in terms of results, but what about the underlying performances?
The Expected Goals (xG) metric uses a complex algorithm to determine the quality of chances that each side has created and conceded this season, giving us a useful tool to measure how good their performances have actually been, regardless of the scorelines.
With data from Understat, here are the tables in terms of Expected Goals so far this season.
Expected Goals (xG)
1. Manchester City – 30.74
2. Liverpool – 29.58
3. Arsenal – 29.54
4. Newcastle United – 28.43
5. Tottenham – 26.09
6. Brighton – 24.90
7. Brentford – 23.45
8. Manchester United – 21.85
9. Fulham – 21.51
10. Leeds United – 21.19
11. West Ham United – 19.59
12. Aston Villa – 17.35
13. Chelsea – 16.81
14. Everton – 16.22
15. Leicester City – 16.24
16. Southampton – 16.15
17. Nottingham Forest – 15.53
18. Crystal Palace – 15.30
19. Wolves – 14.23
20. Bournemouth – 13.32
As expected, City and Arsenal haven’t been lucky this season – their attacks really are just that efficient. Newcastle United are comfortably in the top four in terms of the quality of the chances they create, while Brighton and Brentford will also be pleased.
Chelsea and Manchester United fans will be nodding sagely at the numbers that indicate their team has much to improve on.
At the other end of the table, you see relegation battlers Wolves, Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth struggle quite dramatically in terms of fashioning chances, while West Ham aren’t doing too shabbily in that regard – their underwhelming season has its origins in their failure to take such chances.
Expected Goals Against (xGA)
1. Arsenal – 11.81
2. Manchester City – 13.16
3. Brighton – 16.07
4. Manchester United – 17.34
5. West Ham United – 17.53
6. Newcastle United – 17.45
7. Tottenham – 18.07
8. Crystal Palace – 20.26
9. Wolves – 20.78
10. Leicester City – 21.08
11. Aston Villa – 21.34
12. Chelsea – 21.87
13. Leeds United – 22.28
14. Brentford – 22.63
15. Liverpool – 23.10
16. Southampton – 23.15
17. Everton – 25.38
18. Bournemouth –…
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