Conference Finals: Does an LA Galaxy vs. Orlando City MLS Cup await?

Just three games remain in the Audi 2024 MLS Cup Playoffs. Conference Semifinals are this weekend.

I’m pretty thoroughly on the record now about how much I like the way Orlando have played since Martín Ojeda was moved to the No. 10 spot midway through the season. The litany of data that says they’re a top-five team in the league since that switch – everything from points per game to xG differential to expected threat, etc. – is long and compelling, as is the eye test.

Don’t let their finishing issues fool you; they’ve controlled three out of their four playoff games thus far.

The Red Bulls are, in many ways, the opposite side of that coin, as they spent most of the second half of the season playing miserable soccer with just two wins in four months. But they got Emil Forsberg back, Carlos Coronel on a heater and Sandro Schwarz to channel his inner Jerry Yeagley with some true grit-’n-grind, playoff ball.

What we’ve seen from Orlando City so far

Just a lot of good, mostly mistake-free soccer. That’s how you concede exactly one goal over four playoff games, and while some of that is a bit of overperformance – the good version of Pedro Gallese has shown up this autumn – it’s not all that.

In a lot of ways, this team reminds me of the late-2010s Seattle side that won two MLS Cups and went to a third by just coming out in a bog-standard 4-2-3-1, limiting variance and trusting the match-winners to win the matches. There’s not a lot that stands out in the data. They just do everything well and almost nothing poorly, and as long as Gallese and center back Rodrigo Schlegel are keeping their heads, they don’t really shoot themselves in the foot.

The issue for them right now is what’s happening in front of goal. They’re creating chances well enough, save for that second game in Charlotte. Here’s what’s happening with those:

Orlando have created these types of chances (Ojeda making inside-out runs and Facu Torres coming to the back post) for fun since July.

How you think this game will turn out comes down to what you think of Torres, Ramiro Enrique, Duncan McGuire and Luis Muriel: Are these guys bums who are gonna keep missing, or are they due?

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