Factors Affecting The January Transfer Window

Ah, the January transfer window.

It’s traditionally been a time when fans have lapped up the frenetic madness of the industry as their team scours the market for talent.

Who could forget Juan Mata being delivered to David Moyes at Manchester United on a helicopter in 2014? Arsenal bringing in Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang for £56million ($71.5m) on deadline day in 2018? Or even Chelsea dropping £106m on Enzo Fernandez last year?

However, with clubs more concerned than ever about the implications of breaching the Premier League’s profitability and sustainability regulations (PSR), are we now starting to see a shift from those more carefree days of old?

After a crazy summer window, driven by the rise of the lucrative Saudi Pro League, this month has so far been a little trickle of activity with clubs trying to box smart with loans and cut-price deals.

The Premier League’s decision to dock Everton 10 points for breaching their PSR has left other clubs looking nervously over their shoulder, while the ban on the ‘Chelsea loophole’ has put a block on one potential way around this.

Even the Saudi league seems prepared for a quiet January, the main noise from there being Jordan Henderson’s come-and-get-me plea to Europe.

So are fears of breaching financial fair play (FFP) finally taking effect after the Everton ruling? What does it mean for this month’s window? And is it ruining all our transfer fun?

“The Everton case is a big factor for sure, ” says Dan Plumley, a sports finance expert and lecturer at Sheffield Hallam University. “We had never seen a club docked points for FFP breaches so that will have put clubs on red alert.”

At a hearing in November, Everton were deducted 10 points for losses totalling £124.5million from 2019 to 2022. This was £19.5m above the £105m limit for any three-season period set out by PSR. They have appealed against this and brought in highly respected lawyer Laurence Rabinowitz to help fight their case.

Clubs are only allowed to lose £105m over three seasons (or £35m a season) but certain costs can be deducted, such as investment in youth development, infrastructure, community and women’s football. There were also specific allowances relating to the Covid-19 pandemic and, to help clubs, the league combined the two pandemic-hit seasons into one, turning the three-year accounting period into four years.

“A precedent has been set, ” explains the football finance expert Kieran Maguire. “Clubs have to make sure they are on the right side of…