It’s amazing how orderly the LaLiga table looks at the moment. The top four are Real Madrid, Barcelona, Sevilla and Atletico Madrid, just as they were last year (albeit in a different order), and FiveThirtyEight gives all of them at least a 79% chance of finishing there.
Barcelona have possessed the ball more than anyone, as usual. Real Madrid have attempted the most shots. Sevilla have done “Crafty Sevilla Things” (they’ve scored the most set piece goals, for instance) and have won a lot despite an often unexciting attack. Atletico have allowed the fewest shot attempts and xG in the league, as is typically the case under Diego Simeone.
Over the course of 38 matches, the table has a way of righting itself after early wonkiness, and that’s never been more clear than in this season and this league. Atletico spent a good portion of the season getting ripped apart in transition in a way we’ve rarely seen under Simeone. Real Betis and Real Sociedad have spent weeks and weeks in the top four. (Their fight isn’t over just yet, but the odds are long.) And of course, Barcelona began the season an outright mess.
Barcelona lost Lionel Messi in August because of their ongoing debt and financial crisis. They lost three of four LaLiga matches during one October swing and fell to ninth in the table, all while getting unceremoniously dumped out of the Champions League. They fired Ronald Koeman and, in club legend Xavi, replaced him with someone who had only ever managed in the Qatari Stars League.
Barca looked on their way to a jarring and significant rebuild. Their debt was intimidating and their odds of finishing in the top four, per FiveThirtyEight, were less than 50% for most of November. That’s virtually unheard of in this era, but since Xavi took over, they’ve lost just twice in league play. They’ve averaged 2.3 points per game, a pace that would have won LaLiga last season.
In modern soccer fashion, they also attempted to spend their way out of debt, adding much-needed…
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