Manchester United’s next managerial call is framed as a choice between a proven elite name and backing a promising coach already doing a solid job in difficult circumstances.
The Manchester United manager situation is a tricky one, and it feels like it comes down to what sort of risk the club are willing to take. In my head, most managers sit in one of two buckets: top class proven managers, and potentially top class managers.
Proven winners versus promising projects
The first group is fairly straightforward: managers who have already managed at top clubs, been successful, won major trophies and implemented good football at that level.
The second group is the one United have to be careful with. These are managers who have shown promise at smaller clubs, put a good style in place, picked up eye catching results and maybe even won a cup, or lifted a title in a smaller league outside the top European competitions.
People like Enrique and Nagelsmann fit into the former, while managers like De Zerbi fall into the latter.
Where Carrick fits and what United are weighing up
Right now we have Michael Carrick, who also falls into that latter category. He is a young manager who has shown promise at another club, but has not proven himself at a top club.
That said, he is actually doing a really good job at United under the circumstances. That leaves the club with a clear choice: stick with him or replace him.
If they do replace him, it has to be with someone they are highly confident will do a better job, and that points you back towards the proven, top class manager bracket. If Carrick does a great job and is then replaced with an Enrique or a Nagelsmann, that makes total sense. The club have clearly upgraded the manager, and even if it ultimately fails, it is still the safer bet than sticking with Carrick.
The gamble of swapping one promise for another
The problem is replacing a young promising manager who is doing a good job with another unproven yet promising manager. You can argue De Zerbi has done more in his career than Carrick and might be a better candidate on that basis, but he has not managed to do that at a club like United, like what Carrick is doing right now.
If the club replace Carrick with someone in that same category, then it absolutely has to work out. Otherwise they look foolish for not trusting Carrick in the first place, and that is a massive gamble.
There are also practical complications around hiring some of the top…
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