Liverpool, Man City & Arsenal’s chances of finishing first

The last time three teams were separated by just two points at the Premier League summit this late into a season, Leicester City were on top.

The Foxes now reside at the summit of England’s second tier, leaving Liverpool, Manchester City and Arsenal to duke out a thrilling slugfest for this year’s Premier League crown.

Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp’s generational genius has paved the way for some of the most high-spec, machine-like title races in recent years. Yet, Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal, hardened by last season’s spring collapse, are unquestionably the third horse in a rare three-way joust after making the best start to any calendar year in the club’s history.

With the final third of the campaign upon us, just one win separates the division’s leading triumvirate. Here’s how Opta’s supercomputer predicts the remainder of an enthralling campaign to play out.

2023/24 Premier League table

As Klopp reflected on Liverpool’s position at the Premier League summit, he admitted: “Nobody expected us there.” Even the German coach himself conceded: “I thought it was possible, but didn’t really think about it.”

Opta put a number on the overwhelming doubt looming over any Liverpool title charge after finishing fifth – 22 points behind champions Manchester City – last term: 3.5%. Liverpool’s chances of winning the title have increased tenfold over the subsequent six months.

Despite overhauling the entire midfield, Klopp has somehow crafted a cohesive unit without the yawning chasms that existed last season. Liverpool are not flawless – none of the title challengers are, which is perhaps what makes this year’s race more engaging than the previous processions of near perfection – and have conceded the first goal in 11 different matches this term, almost twice as often as Arsenal for comparison.

However, the remarkable squad depth at Klopp’s disposal has covered an acute injury crisis and Liverpool arguably have the kindest run-in of any contender. But they are not the favourites.

All data via Opta. Correct as of 25 February 2024.

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